Timing Market Turns for the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) 04/11/2006
Market Timing for Daily and Intraday Investors and Trades.
For Option Trading, Futures Trading and Trading ETF's (QQQQ) on NDX
Swing trade - 100% short positions at the open today.
Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible short by Friday.
Here are two charts that show the documented unleveraged performance of our trading by TimerTrac.com since the fall of 2005.
Swing Position
Swing Position Performance
Investor Core
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Investor Core Position Performance
When we began submitting our trades to TimerTrac.com, it was solely for an objective view of how our system would look in real time. We had account evidence of how the system worked, but it has a mixture of trade types and models. We wanted to see how it would look disaggregated into an Investment and a Swing focus. So we began to post our trades as we took them during the RTH. As we read the fine print at TimerTrac.com, we missed the specific terms of an Index's price given to any trade. My fault but I still don't find a clear explanation of the issue. I should have asked the marvelous customer service contacts there. By December, our results were not looking comparable to what we thought they should. So I finally asked why. :)
We immediately adjusted our trade timing to TimerTrac's specifics of entry and exit pricing of a transaction. The rule is: enter or exit a trade before the day's open and the opening price for the instrument traded is what you get. Enter or exit a trade after the open but before the close of the day, the closing price of the instrument traded is what you get. Since that adjustment, our performance has done much better. :) I have been told by TimerTrac members that our systems are at the top of the comparative performance chart. TimerTrac only allows paid members to view the comparatives. I have no idea how we are doing in current times. But as was often heard in the decade of the 1970's, 'The times, they are a-changin.'
We aren't boastful, yet we expect the system's performance will soar. That will result from now separating the indexes and trading each index's signal, instead of taking signals from the SPX for trading all three indexes (SPX, NDX, and the DOW 30).
Bear markets are much easier to trade for us. Each index began to form separate structures and volume patterns early this year as any trader can see. Sentiment buried in each has been diverging at different times and continues. Trading the indexes by their individual signals will help those trading the derivatives of that index much more. More work for us but better results for all.
It is not common knowledge among investors and traders that outperforming the S&P 500 Index for a year is the grand goal of all investment managers, hedge fund managers and trading advisors. Lipper and Morningstar are two examples of groups that rate money managers and mutual funds throughout the year. To just breakeven with the S&P 500, each professional manager must overcome sizable fees and other expenses. It is similar to starting a road race with one flat tire isn't it. As individual investors and traders, we don't have that fixed overhead to overcome each quarter.
The selection and analysis of the trader's preferred market is our sole burden. We hope we have lightened that burden by pointing to that heretofore unanswerable question of 'when?'. When to enter, when to exit and when to stay with the position. We won't always get it right, but we'll be close to the mark. And, we will always correct our mistakes when wrong in a trade.
We hold ourselves to a high standard of integrity. We are accountable and always will be to He that guides our path. We have great faith and great love of God's creations and His Word. In John 1:1 (NIV), John wrote profoundly, "In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God."
Who was the Word? John 1:14 explains Him this way. "The Word became flesh and made His dwelling among us. We have seen His glory, and the glory of the One and Only, who came from the Father, full of grace and truth."
In these times of political correctness in social circles and business life, it is considered bad form to let others know how deeply you believe and what you believe. I'll tell you what I think of that Hollywood/media derived social rule making. When everybody thinks/believes/conforms to that amoral relativism, they are wrong. So fade them, fade political correctness.
It promotes the biggest fallacy ever. That is, everybody can be right even if they are wrong. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. It will kill your spirit, your individuality and ultimately your soul. We don't have to live in fear of being accountable to the politically correct. We will only be accountable to Him some day. "Love the Lord your God with all your heart and all your soul and all your mind. This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: Love your neighbor as yourself. All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments." Matthew 22:37-40 NIV
Some readers will be put off, offended or maybe even angered by the above testament being attached and included in a business or market related discussion. If that describes you, then you aren't in control of your emotions nor have you considered changing your incorrect attitudes about faith or God or how blessed you are. If you are angered by this discussion, take that as a sign that something is wrong or amiss in your life, not mine. It doesn't matter whether you were raised Christian, Jew, Muslim, or Buddhist or Hindu. There is only one God, and He has always loved you. Totally. It still amazes me that I am so loved. Fade the world, get long His love and grace.
Good Trading and God bless you.
W. B. Busin
For Option Trading, Futures Trading and Trading ETF's (QQQQ) on NDX
Swing trade - 100% short positions at the open today.
Investor core - 100% cash positions. Possible short by Friday.
Here are two charts that show the documented unleveraged performance of our trading by TimerTrac.com since the fall of 2005.
Swing Position
Swing Position PerformanceInvestor Core
<
Investor Core Position PerformanceWhen we began submitting our trades to TimerTrac.com, it was solely for an objective view of how our system would look in real time. We had account evidence of how the system worked, but it has a mixture of trade types and models. We wanted to see how it would look disaggregated into an Investment and a Swing focus. So we began to post our trades as we took them during the RTH. As we read the fine print at TimerTrac.com, we missed the specific terms of an Index's price given to any trade. My fault but I still don't find a clear explanation of the issue. I should have asked the marvelous customer service contacts there. By December, our results were not looking comparable to what we thought they should. So I finally asked why. :)
We immediately adjusted our trade timing to TimerTrac's specifics of entry and exit pricing of a transaction. The rule is: enter or exit a trade before the day's open and the opening price for the instrument traded is what you get. Enter or exit a trade after the open but before the close of the day, the closing price of the instrument traded is what you get. Since that adjustment, our performance has done much better. :) I have been told by TimerTrac members that our systems are at the top of the comparative performance chart. TimerTrac only allows paid members to view the comparatives. I have no idea how we are doing in current times. But as was often heard in the decade of the 1970's, 'The times, they are a-changin.'
We aren't boastful, yet we expect the system's performance will soar. That will result from now separating the indexes and trading each index's signal, instead of taking signals from the SPX for trading all three indexes (SPX, NDX, and the DOW 30).
Bear markets are much easier to trade for us. Each index began to form separate structures and volume patterns early this year as any trader can see. Sentiment buried in each has been diverging at different times and continues. Trading the indexes by their individual signals will help those trading the derivatives of that index much more. More work for us but better results for all.
It is not common knowledge among investors and traders that outperforming the S&P 500 Index for a year is the grand goal of all investment managers, hedge fund managers and trading advisors. Lipper and Morningstar are two examples of groups that rate money managers and mutual funds throughout the year. To just breakeven with the S&P 500, each professional manager must overcome sizable fees and other expenses. It is similar to starting a road race with one flat tire isn't it. As individual investors and traders, we don't have that fixed overhead to overcome each quarter.
The selection and analysis of the trader's preferred market is our sole burden. We hope we have lightened that burden by pointing to that heretofore unanswerable question of 'when?'. When to enter, when to exit and when to stay with the position. We won't always get it right, but we'll be close to the mark. And, we will always correct our mistakes when wrong in a trade.
We hold ourselves to a high standard of integrity. We are accountable and always will be to He that guides our path. We have great faith and great love of God's creations and His Word. In John 1:1 (NIV), John wrote profoundly, "In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God."
Who was the Word? John 1:14 explains Him this way. "The Word became flesh and made His dwelling among us. We have seen His glory, and the glory of the One and Only, who came from the Father, full of grace and truth."
In these times of political correctness in social circles and business life, it is considered bad form to let others know how deeply you believe and what you believe. I'll tell you what I think of that Hollywood/media derived social rule making. When everybody thinks/believes/conforms to that amoral relativism, they are wrong. So fade them, fade political correctness.
It promotes the biggest fallacy ever. That is, everybody can be right even if they are wrong. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. It will kill your spirit, your individuality and ultimately your soul. We don't have to live in fear of being accountable to the politically correct. We will only be accountable to Him some day. "Love the Lord your God with all your heart and all your soul and all your mind. This is the first and greatest commandment. And the second is like it: Love your neighbor as yourself. All the Law and the Prophets hang on these two commandments." Matthew 22:37-40 NIV
Some readers will be put off, offended or maybe even angered by the above testament being attached and included in a business or market related discussion. If that describes you, then you aren't in control of your emotions nor have you considered changing your incorrect attitudes about faith or God or how blessed you are. If you are angered by this discussion, take that as a sign that something is wrong or amiss in your life, not mine. It doesn't matter whether you were raised Christian, Jew, Muslim, or Buddhist or Hindu. There is only one God, and He has always loved you. Totally. It still amazes me that I am so loved. Fade the world, get long His love and grace.
Good Trading and God bless you.
W. B. Busin
posted by W. B. Busin at 10:54 PM
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